Can incorporating parity information improve the reliability of fertility projections? Insights from a Bayesian generalized additive model approach
Preprint (2024).
Authors: Ellison J, Bijak J, Dodd E
Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (2023), Series C: Applied Statistics. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J J
Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England & Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources
CPC (2023). Working Paper: 106
Authors: Ellison J, Kuang B, Christison S, Berrington A, Kulu H
Education and Fertility: A Review of Recent Research in Europe
Comparative Population Studies (2023). Vol. 48 (Sept 2023): 553-588.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2023-21
Authors: Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kuang B, Kulu H
Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales and Scotland?
CPC (2023). Working Paper: 105
Authors: Berrington A, Kuang B, Christison S, Kulu H
Cross-national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales, and Scotland
BMJ Sexual and Reproductive Health (2022). DOI:
Authors: Kuang B, Berrington A
Demographic Research (2022). Volume 47 – Article 22, pages 647-694. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.22
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J
Microthesis: Combining data sources to develop a fertility projection model
London Mathematical Society (2022). Issue 498 – January 2022, pages 48-49.
Authors: Ellison J
CPC (2022). Series Number: 103
Authors: Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kuang B, Kulu H
Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales and Scotland?
CPC (2023). Working Paper: 105
Authors: Berrington A, Kuang B, Christison S, Kulu H
Demographic Research (2022). Volume 47 – Article 22, pages 647-694. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.22
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J
What is the likely impact of COVID-19 on fertility in the UK?
CPC (2022). Series Number: 66
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H
Theory and Explanation in Demography: The case of low fertility in Europe
Graham, E. (2021). Population Studies 75: sup1, 133-155. DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1971742
Population, Space and Place (2021).
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H
Fertility desires, intentions and behaviour
Berrington, A. (2021). In N. Schneider, & M. Kreyenfeld (Eds.), Research Handbook on the Sociology of the Family (pp. 248-262). Edward Elgar.
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
CPC (2021). Series Number: 95
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H
Twenty years of having babies across different countries of the UK: How has parents’ partnership status changed?
University of Southampton, CPC (2020). Series Number: 56
Authors: Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kulu H
Related Previous Publications
The Changing Association Between Homeownership and the Transition to Parenthood
Demography (2021). 9420322.
Authors: V Tocchioni, A Berrington, D Vignoli, A Vitali
Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 183(3):829–856, 2020.
Authors: J Ellison, E Dodd, and J J Forster
Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: Patterns and determinants
Population, Space and Place (2020). 26 (4)
Authors: Campisi N, Kulu H, Mikolai J, Klüsener S, Myrskylä M
A decade of life-course research on fertility of immigrants and their descendants in Europe
Demographic Research (2019). 40 (46) 1345-1374
Authors: Kulu H, Milewski N, Hannemann T, Mikolai J
Associations between birth order with mental wellbeing and psychological distress in midlife: findings from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)
Plos One (2019).
Authors: Stannard S, Berrington A, Alwan N
The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales
Demographic Research (2016). 34 (36) 1037-1052
Authors: Robards J, Berrington A
Demographic Research (2015). 33 (26) 733-764
Authors: Berrington A, Stone J, Beaujouan E
Commitment and the changing sequence of cohabitation, childbearing, and marriage: Insights from qualitative research in the UK
Demographic Research (2015). 33 (12) 327-362
Authors: Berrington A, Perelli-Harris B, Trevena P
Educational differences in fertility desires, intentions and behaviour: a life course perspective
Advances in Life Course Research (2014). 21 (41883) 10-27
Authors: Berrington A, Pattaro S
Identifying biases arising from combining census and administrative data – the fertility of migrants in the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study
Longitudinal and Life Course Studies (2013). 4 (3)
Authors: Robards J, Berrington A, Hinde A
Estimating fertility rates using the ONS Longitudinal Study – what difference does the inclusion of non-continually resident members make?
Population Trends (2011). 144 33-47
Authors: Robards J, Berrington A, Hinde A
High suburban fertility: evidence from four northern European countries
Demographic Research (2009). 21 915-44
Authors: Kulu H, Boyle P, Andersson G
Completed manuscripts (unpublished)
Christison, S., Kulu, H., Fiori, F., Keenan, K. 2024. Family building and residential mobility: How do fertility and mobility intentions influence residential mobility? Unpublished manuscript.
Christison, S., Berrington, A., Kulu, H. 2024. Childbearing and residential context: A longitudinal analysis of fertility trends in Scotland. Unpublished manuscript.
Ellison J., Berrington, A., Kulu, H. 2024. Incorporating information about time since last birth into parity-specific fertility projections: A case study of Scotland. Unpublished manuscript.
Kuang, B., Christison, S., Berrington, A., Kulu, H. 2024. Educational trends in cohort fertility by birth order: A comparison of England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Unpublished manuscript.
Kuang, B., Berrington, A., Vasireddy, S., Kulu, H. 2024. The changing inter-relationship between partnership dynamics and fertility trends in Europe and the US: A review. Unpublished manuscript.
Kulu, H., Kuang, B., Christison, S., Berrington, A. 2024. Fertility trends by birth order in Britain: The comparison between England and Wales, and Scotland. Unpublished manuscript.